Fundamental view:

Euro rallied against the greenback in the past week. This is mostly due to the dovish comments from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and tepid local employment-related data, all of which points to a delay in tapering. Hawkish which came from different fed officials led to the speculation the US central bank will start reducing its ultra-loose monetary policy by year-end. But Powell cooled down such hopes at the Jackson Hole symposium by expressing concerns about the potential effects of the spread of the coronavirus Delta variant in the economic recovery. Amidst this current scenario where investors are cautious towards the greenback, Euro showed a bullish trend.

Europe Retail Sales yearly report on 30th August and US S&P/CS HPI Composite-20 yearly report on 31st August created downtrend whereas Europe Unemployment Rate on 1st September and Europe PPI monthly report on 2nd September created uptrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Europe Employment Change quarterly report, Europe GDP quarterly report at Sep 07, US JOLTS Job Openings, FOMC Member Williams Speech at Sep 08, ECB Interest Rate Decision, US Initial Jobless Claims, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Sep 09, Eurogroup Meeting and US WASDE Report at Sep 10.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.91% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1909 and low at 1.1783 showed a movement of 126 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 1.1930 may open a clean path towards 1.1982 and may take a way up to 1.2056. Should 1.1804 prove to be unreliable support, the EURUSD may sink downwards 1.1730 and 1.1678 respectively. Chart formation of a pennant pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bullish trend. Engulfing formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bullish trend.