Fundamental view:

The Euro fell to the fresh 2021 low of 1.1890 this week. The dollar was supported across the board following comments from the head of US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell. In interview on Thursday, Powell repeated that the outlook is becoming more positive but remarked that “sustained” progress toward the Fed goals on employment and inflation. A rate hike won’t occur until inflation runs above 2% for some time.

Europe Markit Manufacturing PMI & Europe HICP monthly report on 1^st March and Europe Unemployment Rate and Europe Core CPI monthly report on 2^nd March created uptrend for the pair whereas Europe Markit Services PMI on 3^rd March and  Europe Retail Sales monthly report & Initial Jobless Claims on 4^th March created downtrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Europe Employment Change quarterly report at Mar 09, US CPI monthly report, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Mar 10, ECB Interest Rate Decision, US JOLTS Job Openings, Initial Jobless Claims at Mar 11, and US Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Mar 12.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.06% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.2113 and low at 1.1893 showed a movement of 220 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.1832 may open a clean path towards 1.1752 and may take a way down to 1.1612. Should 1.2052 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.2193 and 1.2272 respectively. Chart formation of a descending scallop pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Harami pattern formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.