Fundamental view:

The Euro has fell against greenback in this week reaching to a fresh low of 1.1528 as the world struggles to overcome the pandemic. Resuming of the economic activity has faced hurdles and supply chain disruptions since the recovery is very uneven across the globe. The soon to come tapering has benefited the US dollar. Talking on the Fed, The US Federal Reserve has long anticipated reducing its pandemic-related facilities programs, while the European Central Bank seems quite comfortable maintaining financial support. But at the end of the week, It was a great disappointment since the US has just added 194K new jobs in September which is much worse than the 500K expectation. The Unemployment Rate has contracted to 4.8%, although it was because the participation rate shrank to 61.6%.  This pressured the greenback but Euro could not take the advantage of that.

Europe Unemployment Change on 4th Oct and Europe Industrial Production monthly report on 5th Oct created bullish trend whereas US Factory Orders excl. Transportation monthly report on 4th Oct and US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change on 6th Oct created bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Euro ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator, US JOLTS Job Openings at Oct 12, Europe Industrial Production monthly report, FOMC Minutes at Oct 13, US Initial Jobless Claims, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Oct 14 and US Retail Sales monthly report at Oct 15.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.73% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1640 and low at 1.1529 showed a movement of 111 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to showcase a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A firm breakout below 1.1521 may fall to 1.1469 and may take a way down to 1.1410. Should 1.1632 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards to 1.1691 and 1.1743 respectively. Chart formation of an inverted cup and handle pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Shooting star formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.