Fundamental view:

Euro initially fell against greenback but overcame losses and closed the week with a bull candle. The American currency was bid through the first half of the week with the anticipation of the FOMC Meeting Minutes. The US central bank surprised market participants in its June meeting by forwarding changes of rate hikes amid economic improvement. The European Central Bank had a special meeting where the Committee discussed running unconventional monetary policies. The ECB made a decision to let inflation slightly overshoot its 2% target to avoid the risk of premature tightening. The fear of delta version of covid in Europe and Us has raised concern among traders.

Europe Factory Orders monthly and yearly report on 6th July and US Natural Gas Storage on 8th July created downtrend Whereas Europe Markit Services PMI on 5th July and Europe Exports monthly report & Imports monthly report on 8th July Created uptrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US WASDE Report at July 12, US Federal Budget Balance at July 13, Europe Industrial Production monthly report, US Fed Chair Powell Testimony at July 14, US Initial Jobless Claims at July 15, Europe Core CPI monthly report and US Retail sales monthly report at July 16.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.41% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1895 and low at 1.1781 showed a movement of 114 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.1806 may open a clean path towards 1.1737 and may take a way down to 1.1692. Should 1.1920 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.1965 and 1.2034 respectively. Chart formation of a bearish shark pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Bearish Engulfing formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.