Fundamental view:

The Euro gave up against the greenback this week and closed with a bearish candle. Lack of Macroeconomic events and the spread of the coronavirus Delta variant fueling concerns may be the reason for the concerns in the market making way for the fall of the pair. On Thursday, European Central Bank announced its decision on monetary policy. As widely anticipated, the central bank has left its rates unchanged, with the main refinancing rate at 0.00%. The Bank also maintained the emergency bond-buying program (PEPP) at €1,850 billion until at least March 2022. Amidst all the catalysts Euro was in the downtrend.

Europe Sentix Investor Confidence on 6th Sep and Europe Trade Balance & Current Account n.s.a. on 9th Sep created uptrend whereas Europe ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator on 7th Sep and Europe Nonfarm Payrolls quarterly report on 8th Sep created downtrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US Federal Budget Balance at Sep 13, Euro Industrial Production monthly report, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Sep 15, US Retail Sales monthly report, US Initial Jobless Claims at Sep 16, Euro Core CPI monthly report and US Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Sep 17.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.19% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1886 and low at 1.1802 showed a movement of 84 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 50 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.1779 may open a clean path towards 1.1749 and may take a way down to 1.1695. Should 1.1863 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.1917 and 1.1947 respectively. Chart formation of a rounding top pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Long leg doji formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.