Fundamental view:

Euro traded low against dollar at fresh monthly lows and with increased bearish potential. Investors read reg past upwardly revised US inflation figures, which hit 5% YoY in May, accelerating at the fastest pace since 2008. The US Federal Reserve will have a monetary policy meeting next week, and the assessment of record inflation would be critical for the dollar’s direction.

Europe Factory Orders monthly report on 7th June and Europe Industrial Production monthly report & Europe Trade Balance on 8th June favored bearish trend whereas Europe Current Account n.s.a. 9th June and Europe Industrial Production monthly report on 10th June favored bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Europe Industrial Production monthly report at Jun 14, US Retail Sales monthly report, Fed Industrial Production yearly report at Jun 15, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Fed Interest Rate Decision at Jun 16, ECB Targeted LTRO, US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and US Initial Jobless Claims at Jun 17.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.30% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.2217 and low at 1.2092 showed a movement of 125 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.2060 may open a clean path towards 1.2014 and may take a way down to 1.1935. Should 1.2185 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.2264 and 1.2310 respectively. Chart formation of a rounding top pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Bearish Engulfing formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.