Fundamental view:

The American dollar appreciated throughout the first half of the week, in the heels of the momentum triggered by encouraging data released the previous Friday coupled with the absence of relevant macroeconomic news but in later part it turned in to opposite direction as the shared currency got vote of confidence from market players on Thursday, following the European Central Bank monetary policy meeting. Europe German Industrial Production on 7th Sept and Europe French Final Private Payrolls on 8^th Sept created a bearish environment and US credit monthly report on 9^th Sept and Europe Italian Industrial Production monthly report on 10^th Sept created bullish environment for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are ZEW Economic Sentiment at Sep 15, Europe Trade Balance, US Core Retail Sales monthly report, FOMC Economic Projections at Sep 16, Unemployment Claims at Sep 17, and US CB Leading Index monthly report at Sep 18.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.78% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1917 and low at 1.1752 showed a movement of 165 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 100 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.1760 may open a clean path towards 1.1674 and may take a way down to 1.1595. Should 1.1924 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.2003 and 1.2089 respectively. Chart formation of a Bearish crab in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Bearish harami formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.