Fundamental view:

The Euro went back and forth during the course of this week. In this week, The ECB decided to maintain rates and leave quantitative easing unchanged, as expected but announced it would significantly step up the pace of bond-buying to grant financial stability. Governmental support and ultra-loose central banks’ policies are still short of boosting economic growth. Amidst all the updates, there was uptrend in EUR against Dollar.

Europe Industrial Production monthly report on 8th March and Europe Current Account n.s.a on 9th March created downtrend for the pair whereas Europe Industrial Production & Europe PPI monthly report on 10^th March and US EIA Natural Gas Storage on 11^th March created uptrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Europe ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator, US Retail Sales monthly report at Mar 16, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Fed Interest Rate Decision at Mar 17, ECB Targeted LTRO, US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and US Initial Jobless Claims at Mar 18.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.06% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1990 and low at 1.1836 showed a movement of 154 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.1860 may open a clean path towards 1.1771 and may take a way down to 1.1706. Should 1.2014 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.2079 and 1.2168 respectively. Chart formation of an ascending triangle pattern breakout downside in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Bearish engulfing formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.