Fundamental view:

Euro initially tried to rally against the greenback but later fell beyond 1.15 crucial level. The American dollar reached the fresh 2021 highs against its European rival in this week. Federal Reserve is more than likely going to continue its tapering program, driving up interest rates in general which helped the US dollar. When the US Federal Reserve announced its latest decision on monetary policy in early November, Chair Jerome Powell  made a note  that inflation was the main theme, adding that current price pressures are frustrating. Moving on to ECB, the European Central Bank retains its conservative stance, pledging to maintain stimulus for as long as needed.

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence on 8^th November and US Core PPI yearly report on 9^th November created bullish trend whereas Eurozone Trade Balance on 9^th November and Federal Budget Balance on 10^th November created bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Eurozone Employment Change quarterly report, Eurozone GDP quarterly report, US Retail Sales monthly report, Fed Industrial Production monthly report at Nov 16, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Nov 17, Initial Jobless Claims at Nov 18 and Fed Governor Waller Speech at Nov 19.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.07% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1608 and low at 1.1432 showed a movement of 176 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A firm breakout below 1.1380 might make a fall to 1.1318 and then take a way down to 1.1204. Should 1.1556 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards to 1.1670 and 1.1732 respectively. Chart formation of a descending and inverted scallop pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Bearish harami formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.