Fundamental view:

Euro showed an uptrend against greenback in the past week reaching a 1.19 level. The major reason for that is the broad dollar’s weakness as the result of falling US Treasury yields. US policymakers have repeated multiple times this week that the ongoing massive stimulus program will remain in place until the economy actually recovers to pre-pandemic levels. 

US Core Retail Sales monthly report on 15^th April and US Housing Starts on 16^th April created downtrend for the pair whereas Europe Retail Sales on 12^th April and ZEW Economic Situation on 13th April created uptrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Europe Bbk Monthly Report at April 19, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at April 21, ECB Interest Rate Decision, ECB Monetary Policy Press Conference, US Initial Jobless Claims at April 22, ECB President Lagarde Speech and US Markit Manufacturing PMI at April 23.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.57% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1995 and low at 1.1871 showed a movement of 124 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout below 1.1902 may open a clean path towards 1.1825 and may take a way down to 1.1778. Should 1.2026 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.2073 and 1.2150 respectively. Chart formation of a Bearish deep crab pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Shooting star formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.