Fundamental view:

The EUR/USD pair put a halt to its advance and closed the week in the red, around the 1.1700 figure. The decline was the result of a dismal market’s mood, fueled by different pandemic-related developments. There are high chances that the ongoing risk-averse scenario extends next week, as the issues continue to escalate.

US Unemployment Claims on 15th October and Europe Trade Balance on 16^th October created a bullish atmosphere whereas Europe German WPI monthly report on 12^th October and US NFIB Small Business Index bearish moment on 13^th October and US core PPI monthly report on 14^th October created a bearish environment for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are ECB President Lagarde Speaks, Fed Chair Powell Speech at Oct 19, US Building Permits at Oct 20, US Initial Jobless Claims at Oct 22, Europe and US Markit Manufacturing PMI at Oct 23.  

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.03% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1826 and low at 1.1688 showed a movement of 138 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.1661 may open a clean path towards 1.1605 and may take a way down to 1.1523. Should 1.1799 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.1882 and 1.1937 respectively. Chart formation of a flag pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Bearish harami formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.