EUR/USD Weekly Forecast (20th September 2021 – 24th September 2021)

Fundamental view:

The Euro has initially rallied during the course of the trading week but later fell to form a bearish candle. The corporate has benefited from economic growth and price pressures wane failed to impress Wall Street, which remained in a downbeat mood. That supported the safe-haven dollar. Isabel Schanel, a German member of the European Central Bank, has said that inflation will significantly decrease early next year “in all likelihood.” This words also weighed on the euro. COVID-19 cases are at low levels and falls continuously in Europe while the US struggles with elevated infections.

Europe CPI monthly report on 14th Sep and Europe Current Account on 17th Sep created uptrend whereas Europe Quarterly Unemployment Rate on 13th Sep and Europe Trade Balance on 16th Sep created downtrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US Building Permits at Sep 21, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, ECB Non-monetary Policy Meeting, Fed Interest Rate Decision at Sep 22, ECB Economic Bulletin, US Initial Jobless Claims at Sep 23, Europe Ifo Business Climate and Fed Chair Powell Speech at Sep 24.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.34% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1845 and low at 1.1724 showed a movement of 121 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.1684 may open a clean path towards 1.1643 and may take a way down to 1.1563. Should 1.1805 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.1885 and 1.1926 respectively. Chart formation of a symmetrical triangle pattern breakout in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Bearish harami formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.