Fundamental view:

The Euro has fallen a bit during the course of the week but then turned around to wake up yet again. The Euro has ended the week where it started, in the 1.2130 price zone, and while it expanded its weekly range. Investor’s attention is centered on US Treasury yields, as long-term ones soared to one-year highs. The dollar was rallying with yields at the starting, but the exceptional correlation was short-lived, fading as the days went by.

Europe Trade Balance on 15^th Feb and US Housing Starts monthly report on 18^th Feb favored uptrend for the pair whereas US NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing on 16^th Feb and US TIC Net Long-Term Transactions on 17^th Feb favored downtrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Europe Ifo Business Climate at Feb 22, Fed Chair Powell Testimony, US CB Consumer Confidence Index at Feb 23, Fed Chair Powell Testimony at Feb 24, US GDP quarterly report, US Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report, US Initial Jobless Claims at Feb 25, and Europe GDP quarterly report at Feb 26.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.17% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.2170 and low at 1.2023 showed a movement of 147 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 100 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 1.2184 may open a clean path towards 1.2250 and may take a way up to 1.2330. Should 1.2038 prove to be unreliable support, the EURUSD may sink downwards 1.1957 and 1.1891 respectively. Chart formation of a bullish shark pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bullish trend. Engulfing formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bullish trend.