Fundamental view:

The Euro managed to close with a bullish candle for a second consecutive week but the advance was somewhat dull as the shared currency stood away from investors’ radars. Top Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about extended high inflation and noted that it could force the central bank to raise rates sooner than anticipated. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that he thinks that rate increases are “still some time off” despite thinking the central bank should begin tapering its bond-buying program before year-end. At the current point, it is a “done deal” that the Federal Reserve will start reducing its facilities as soon as November, regardless of when it decides to hike rates. Amidst the above catalyst , Euro enjoyed a bullish outlook.

US TIC Net Long-Term Transactions on 18th Oct and US Existing Home Sales on 21st Oct created bearish trend whereas Europe CPI excl. Tobacco monthly report on 20th Oct and Europe Markit Services PMI on 22nd Oct created bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Europe Ifo Business Climate at Oct 25, US CB Consumer Confidence Index at Oct 26, US Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report at Oct 27, ECB Interest Rate Decision, ECB Monetary Policy Press Conference, US GDP quarterly report at Oct 28 and Europe GDP quarterly report and US Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Oct 29.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.39% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1669 and low at 1.1571 showed a movement of 98 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 100 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 1.1683 may open a clean path towards 1.1725 and may take a way up to 1.1781. Should 1.1585 prove to be unreliable support, the EURUSD may sink downwards 1.1529 and 1.1487 respectively. Chart formation of a bullish bat pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bullish trend. Hammer formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bullish trend.