Fundamental view:

The Euro has advanced for a third consecutive week, now firmly moving above the 1.2000. During the past week, the US dollar attempted to overcome sentiment-related trading and advanced against the Euro mid-week, but dollar gave up on Thursday after speculative interest negatively reacted to news indicating that US President Joe Biden is planning a tax hike of up to 39.6% on investment gains for Americans making more than $ 1 million. The aim is to fund education spending and child care.

Elsewhere, The global battle against the coronavirus continues. When looking into each economy´s progress, no doubts the US is in much better shape than the EU. US has vaccinated with at least one shot over 34% of the population, while in the EU, the same measure is just 13.6%.  

Europe Construction Output monthly report on 19^th April and US Initial Jobless Claims on 22^nd April created a bearish trend for the pair whereas US EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change & US EIA Gasoline Stocks on 21^st April and Europe Business Climate & Industrial Sales yearly report on 22^nd April created bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Europe Ifo Business Climate, US Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report at April 26, US CB Consumer Confidence Index at April 27, ECB President Lagarde Speech, Fed Interest Rate Decision at April 28, US GDP quarterly report at April 29, Europe GDP quarterly report and US Employment Cost Index at April 30.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.88% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.2100 and low at 1.1943 showed a movement of 157 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 1.2148 may open a clean path towards 1.2202 and may take a way up to 1.2305. Should 1.1991 prove to be unreliable support, the EURUSD may sink downwards 1.1888 and 1.1834 respectively. Chart formation of a bullish gartley pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bullish trend. Three inside up pattern formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bullish trend.