Fundamental view:

The Euro has fallen against greenback again during the course of the week. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and her colleagues are behind the euro’s weakness. In the ECB’s first post-strategic review decision, the Frankfurt-based institution enhanced its commitment to keeping lower rates for longer. The ECB made its forecasts point to 2% annual inflation in the mid of its horizon – and holding above that level until the end of that period – before considering lifting borrowing costs.

Europe Construction Output monthly report on 19th July and US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change on 21st July created uptrend whereas Europe Consumer Confidence Index on 20th July and US Existing Home Sales monthly report on 22nd July created downtrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Europe Ifo Business Climate at July 26, US Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report, US CB Consumer Confidence Index at July 27, Fed Interest Rate Decision at July 28, US GDP quarterly report, US Initial Jobless Claims at July 29, Europe GDP quarterly report and US Michigan Consumer Sentiment at July 30. 

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.42% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1830 and low at 1.1752 showed a movement of 78 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.1738 may open a clean path towards 1.1706 and may take a way down to 1.1660. Should 1.1816 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.1862 and 1.1894 respectively. Chart formation of a Bearish shark pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Bearish engulfing formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.