Fundamental view:

The Euro has bounced rather hard to form a bull candle. Fed bankers remained under the spotlight, although sentiment was the main driver, as rallying stocks underpinned demand for high-yielding currencies. On the one hand, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that the outlook for the euro area economy is brightening as the pandemic situation improves; also adding that economic growth could rebound quicker than expected Adding to it she also said that the ECB will maintain the accommodation policy and that tightening would be premature.

US Current Account on 23rd July and US Initial Jobless Claims 4-Week Average on 24th June favored bearish trend whereas US Existing Home Sales & Europe Consumer Confidence Index on 22nd June and Europe Markit Services PMI & Europe Markit Manufacturing PMI on 23rd June favored bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are ECB President Lagarde Speech, US CB Consumer Confidence Index at Jun 29, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change at Jun 30, Europe Unemployment Rate, US Initial Jobless Claims, US ISM Manufacturing PMI at July 01 and US Nonfarm Payrolls at July 02.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.42% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1975 and low at 1.1847 showed a movement of 128 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.1862 may open a clean path towards 1.1791 and may take a way down to 1.1734. Should 1.1990 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.2047 and 1.2118 respectively. Chart formation of a rising wedge pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Engulfing formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.