Fundamental view:

The Market has set its mind in the previous week and the greenback stands powerful against EUR. Federal hawkish Comments supported dollar whereas the second wave of virus Europe pressurizes EUR against USD. US Core Durable Goods Orders on 25^th Sept showed bullish trend whereas US Richmond Manufacturing Index on 22nd Sept and Europe German GfK Consumer Climate on 23^rd Sept and Europe M3 Money Supply yearly report on 25^th Sept created bearish trend for the pair.

The main theme these days was risk-aversion amid record corona virus contagions in Europe. The Old Continent is in the middle of a second wave, with new restrictions announced in France, Spain and the UK. The pandemic continues to take its toll on economic progress. And we expect a bearish trend in the upcoming week.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US CB Consumer Confidence Index at Sep 29, Europe Unemployment Rate, US GDP quarterly report at 30 Sep, EU Leaders Summit, US ISM Manufacturing PMI at Oct 01, and US Nonfarm Payrolls at Oct 02.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.24% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1871 and low at 1.1612 showed a movement of 259 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.1537 may open a clean path towards 1.1445 and may take a way down to 1.1278. Should 1.1796 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.1964 and 1.2056 respectively. Breakout of an ascending triangle in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Three black crows formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.