Fundamental view:

Pound went back and forth against dollar in this week. Prime Minister Boris Johnson made an announcement that the UK would fully reopen on July 19, scrapping hundreds of COVID-19 restrictions. This set of rules and prospects of a return to normal temporarily boosted the pound. Whereas The US Center for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) warned of the rapid spread of Delta in some areas of the US where vaccination rates are low.

Britain Halifax HPI monthly report on 7th July and Britain Construction Output monthly report on 9th July created downtrend whereas Britain Markit/CIPS Services PMI on 5th July and Britain Trade Balance & Britain NIESR GDP Estimate on 9th July created uptrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US WASDE Report at July 12, BoE FPC Meeting Minutes, US Federal Budget Balance at July 13, US Fed Chair Powell Testimony at July 14, UK Claimant Count Change, US Initial Jobless Claims at July 15 and US Retail sales monthly report at July 16.

GBP/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.28% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.3900 and low at 1.3741 showed a movement of 159 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect GBP/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout below 1.3794 may open a clean path towards 1.3688 and may take a way down to 1.3635. Should 1.3953 prove to be unreliable resistance, the GBPUSD may raise upwards 1.4006 and 1.4112 respectively. Chart formation of bearish shark pattern in H4 chart favors prospects of a bearish trend. Bearish engulfing pattern formation escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.