Fundamental view:

The Pound has recovered against greenback in the past week. One in every five Brits has received at least one covid vaccine dose – double the rate than in the US and far above Europe. The immunization campaign continues at full force, but Prime Minister Boris Johnson has urged further patience. Still, forex traders tend to move first and ask questions later, sending sterling higher. 

US CB Employment Trends Index on 8^th Feb and US CPI m/m & US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change on 10^th Feb favored bearish trend whereas Britain BRC Retail Sales yearly report on 9^th Feb and Production monthly report & Manufacturing Production monthly report favored bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Fed Governor Bowman Speech at Feb 16, Fed Industrial Production yearly report at Feb 17, BoE MPC Member Saunders Speech, US Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index at Feb 18, UK Retail Sales monthly report, and FOMC Member Rosengren Speech at Feb 19.

GBP/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.77% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.3866 and low at 1.3680 showed a movement of 186 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect GBP/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.3729 may open a clean path towards 1.1.3612 and may take a way down to 1.3543. Should 1.3915 prove to be unreliable resistance, the GBPUSD may raise upwards 1.3983 and 1.4100 respectively. Chart formation of inverted cup and handle pattern in H4 chart favors prospects of a bearish trend. Three black crows pattern formation escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.