Fundamental view:

The British pound tried to rally against the greenback in the previous week. During this week, The US conducted three bond auctions and all were calmer than some had feared. Robust demand for US debt helped temporarily pushes returns lower, weighing on the dollar. However, expectations for strong growth in the world’s largest economy meant that the lid did not stay there for long. Whereas  US data was mixed, with jobless claims surprising with a bigger drop than expected while inflation remains tame for now. 

US Wholesale Sales monthly report on 8^th March and US Core CPI monthly report on 10^th March created downtrend for the pair whereas US Federal Budget Balance & EIA Natural Gas Storage Change on 11^th March and Britain BRC Retail Sales yearly report on 9^th March created uptrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US Retail Sales monthly report at Mar 16, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Fed Interest Rate Decision at Mar 17, BoE Interest Rate Decision, US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US Initial Jobless Claims at Mar 18 and UK GfK Consumer Confidence at Mar 19.

GBP/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.09% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.4005 and low at 1.3800 showed a movement of 205 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect GBP/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 100 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.3806 may open a clean path towards 1.3700 and may take a way down to 1.3601. Should 1.4011 prove to be unreliable resistance, the GBPUSD may raise upwards 1.4110 and 1.4215 respectively. Chart formation of bearish gartley pattern in H4 chart favors prospects of a bearish trend. Bearish engulfing pattern formation escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.