Fundamental view:

Pound had a fall against the greenback in this week reaching a fresh 2021 low. This is mainly due to the US dollar strength as investors are pricing a 72% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike by June 2022. Now the pair’s potential recovery depends on Brexit developments. A positive update comes in, the UK Times claimed that David Frost, the British minister responsible for implementing the Brexit deal, looks to engage in intensive talks with the EU over the next few weeks to reach an agreement. But this brexit positive update did not favor the GBP so far.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment on 12^th November and BRC Retail Sales yearly report on 9^th November favored bullish trend whereas US Core CPI yearly report on 10^th November and Britian construction output on 11^th November favored bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are UK Claimant Count Change, US Retail Sales monthly report, Fed Industrial Production monthly report at Nov 16, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Nov 17, Initial Jobless Claims at Nov 18, UK Retail Sales monthly report and Fed Governor Waller Speech at Nov 19.

GBP/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.66% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.3608 and low at 1.3353 showed a movement of 255 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect GBP/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.3305 might make a fall to 1.3201 and may take a way down to 1.3050. Should 1.3560 prove to be unreliable resistance, the GBPUSD may raise upwards 1.3711 and 1.3815 respectively. Chart formation of inverted cup and handle pattern in H4 chart favors prospects of a bearish trend. Bearish engulfing pattern formation further escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.