Fundamental view:

Pound managed to overcome the downtrend and traded high against the greenback. Although Brexit talks impacted the cable, it took advantage of improved market mood which weighed on the US dollar.  Drop in UK jobless claims in October and rise of inflation to 4.2% YoY in October, higher than the 3.9% forecast by economists and increase in consumer buying in November underpinned the bullish trend of the pair. UK still waves the stick of triggering Article 16, a unilateral suspension of the Withdrawal Agreement and talks about the Northern Irish protocol continues. On the other hand, many Fed speakers had public appearances, Hawkish speakers were same hawkish whereas doves were dovish and some in middle remained silent, this mixed views also made dollar hard to find demand as a safe haven asset.  

In this week, Britain Core retail sales yearly report and Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count on 19^th November favored bearish trend for the pair whereas US Building Permits and Britain CPI monthly report on 17^th November and Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Composite Index favored bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are BoE MPC Member Haskel Speech, US Markit Manufacturing PMI at Nov 23, US GDP quarterly report, US Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report, US Initial Jobless Claims, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, FOMC Minutes at Nov 24 and BoE MPC Member Pill Speech at Nov 26.  

GBP/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.70% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.3513 and low at 1.3396 showed a movement of 117 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect GBP/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A firm breakout below 1.3386 may make a fall to 1.3332 and then may take a way down to 1.3269. Should 1.3503 prove to be unreliable resistance, the GBPUSD may raise upwards 1.3566 and 1.3620 respectively. Chart formation of symmetrical triangle pattern breakout in H4 chart favors prospects of a bearish trend. Bearish harami pattern formation escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.