Fundamental view:

Pound has been trading high against greenback in the past week. GBP/USD as much of the post-FOMC hawkish excitement faded. The recent meeting of BOE provided little in the way of surprises with policy tools left unchanged on the other hand, the outgoing Chief Economist, Andy Haldane, had once again been the only dissenter on the MPC. However, the broader issues with concerns of Irish fishermen’s dissatisfaction with the EU quotas will continue to temper sterling’s recovery moves. Further, a dramatic rise in Britain’s Delta plus covid strain continued to weigh on the cable.

Britain Public Sector Net Cash Requirement on 22nd June and US Markit Manufacturing PMI on 23rd June favored downtrend whereas US Existing Home Sales on 23rd June and Britain GfK Consumer Confidence on 25th June favored uptrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US CB Consumer Confidence Index at Jun 29, UK GDP quarterly report, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change at Jun 30, BoE Governor Bailey Speech, US Initial Jobless Claims, US ISM Manufacturing PMI at July 01 and US Nonfarm Payrolls at July 02.

 GBP/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.93% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.4001 and low at 1.3785 showed a movement of 216 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect GBP/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.3774 may open a clean path towards 1.3671 and may take a way down to 1.3558. Should 1.3990 prove to be unreliable resistance, the GBPUSD may raise upwards 1.4103 and 1.4206 respectively. Chart formation of ascending triangle pattern breakout downside in H4 chart favors prospects of a bearish trend. Shooting star pattern formation escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.