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Release of macroeconomic data pressurizes AUD

Jun 03, 2021 05:30

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The AUD/USD pair trades downside amid the release of both favorable and unfavorable Australian macroeconomic data.

On Wednesday the country reported that Gross Domestic Product was up 1.8% QoQ in the first quarter of the year, much better than the 1.5% expected.

Whereas Australia’s trade surplus has widened in April, increasing from $5.8bn to $8.0bn. That was broadly in line with expectations, But the Imports declined by -3.2%, -$1.1bn.

The fall in imports portrays a temporary dip after strong back-to-back gains, +4.7% and +4.5% for February and March. The underlying trend is one of goods imports recovery as the economy reopens and domestic demand expands.

Export earnings rose by 3.0%, up $1.2bn, a significant increase but falling short of the strong rise suggested by customs data. Coal exports bounced back, up $0.5bn, following the flood related disruptions which contributed to a $0.4bn decline in March. Metal ores rose $0.3bn on the higher iron price and rural goods lifted by a further $0.2bn.

Elsewhere, Commonwealth Bank Services PMI showed a fall of 58.0 which is less than market expectation and previous record of 58.2 The April final retail sales figure has dropped to 1.1% from 1.3% while meeting the expectation.

China has seen Caixin Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report for May at 55.1 which is less than the previous record of 56.3 and expectation of 55.4.

On the other hand, Traders appear to be trading lightly this week because of the potentially hard-hitting United States non-farm payrolls report approaches. While the global economic reopening continues to gain momentum, concerns over rapidly rising prices in the economy have economists and investors alike worried that central banks may be forced to tighten policy should inflation measures continue to ramp up.

AUD/USD 4 Hour Chart:

Support: 0.7719 (S1), 0.7688 (S2), 0.7661 (S3).

Resistance: 0.7777 (R1), 0.7804 (R2), 0.7835 (R3).

Despite some macroeconomic data being favorable for Aussie, the unfavorable data along with the market concerns ahead of the US nonfarm payroll release pressurizes Aussie. We expect a bearish trend for AUD/USD.

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