Fundamental view:

The US dollar has gone back and forth during the course of the trading week while portraying negative weekly trend. The Federal Reserve announcement that it was ending, gradually, its emergency bond program, this was the most highly anticipated market event of the year. The US Central Bank had kept interest rates unchanged at 0.25% as per the anticipation. On the other hand, Meaningful Japanese data this week was just the Overall Household Spending for September which fell 1.9% on the year, less than the 3.9% expected and August’s 3% decline. 

Japan Markit Manufacturing PMI on 1^st November and ADP Nonfarm Employment Change on 3rd November created bullish outlook whereas  Initial Jobless Claims on 4th November and Japan Household Spending monthly report on 5th November created bearish outlook for the pair in this week.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Fed Chair Powell Speech, Japan Current Account n.s.a. at Nov 08, US Initial Jobless Claims, BoJ Corporate Goods Price Index monthly report, US Federal Budget Balance at Nov 10, US JOLTS Job Openings and Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Nov 12.

USD/JPY Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.11% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 114.44 and low at 113.30 showed a movement of 114 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect USD/JPY to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 114.11 may open a clean path towards 114.85 and may take a way up to 115.25. Should 112.97 prove to be unreliable support, the USDJPY may sink downwards to 112.57 and 111.83 respectively. In H4 chart, Formation of bullish shark pattern indicates reversal of the trend raising the prospects of a bullish trend amidst a bullish harami formation braces our expectation.