Fundamental view:

The US dollar has rallied significantly against the yen during this week. The US House has passed on Wednesday the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill and President Joe Biden signed it on Friday. Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note stands at 1.49%. Japan published the February Producer Price Index, which rose 0.4% MoM, below the previous 0.5%. The annual reading came in at -0.7%, as expected. 

Japan Labor Cash Earnings yearly report & Japan GDP Price Index yearly report on 8th March created bullish trend, US Federal Budget Balance & EIA Natural Gas Storage Change on 11th March created bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Japan Industrial Production monthly report, US Retail Sales monthly report at Mar 16, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Fed Interest Rate Decision at Mar 17, US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US Initial Jobless Claims at Mar 18 and BoJ Interest Rate Decision at Mar 19.

USD/JPY Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.54% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 109.23 and low at 108.27 showed a movement of 96 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect USD/JPY to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 109.38 may open a clean path towards 109.79 and may take a way up to 110.34. Should 108.42 prove to be unreliable support, the USDJPY may sink downwards 107.86 and 107.46 respectively. In H4 chart, Formation of cup and handle pattern indicates reversal of the trend creating prospects of a bullish trend Along with a bullish hammer formation braces our expectation.