Fundamental view:

The yellow metal climbed high against the US dollar during the trading course of the week. Market sentiment remained sour for most of the week, which helped the safe-haven flows and it reached to its highest level above $2,070 on Tuesday. However after Thursday’s meeting between the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine, market sentiment improved and positive sentiment dominated on Friday Thursday’s meeting between the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine which heavily weighed on the gold.

Moving on to Central bank, The US Federal Reserve is largely expected to kick off its tightening cycle with a 25 basis points rate hike when the two-day FOMC policy meeting concludes on Wednesday, March 16. However, uncertainty on the economic outlook and inflation has increased by the Russia-Ukraine war, the Fed is unlikely to surprise the markets with a double-dose rate increase.              

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index at Mar 15, Retail Sales monthly report, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Fed Interest Rate Decision at Mar 16, Initial Jobless Claims, Fed Industrial Production yearly report at Mar 17, Fed Governor Bowman Speech at Mar 18 for US.

XAU/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 5.05% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 2070.3 and low at 1958.4 showed a movement of 1119 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect XAU/USD to show a bullish trend. The Instrument is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 2052.9 may open a clean path towards 2117.6 and may take a way up to 2164.8. Should 1941.0 prove to be unreliable support, the XAUUSD may sink downwards 1893.8 and 1829.1 respectively. In H4 chart falling wedge pattern breakout favors prospects of a bullish trend. Also to be noted hammer formation exerts the expectation of uptrend for the pair.